Members

Michael Pettis had a great write-up on the situation in Spain and Europe's depressing prospects. While his conclusion that Spain will be forced to exit the euro zone is something I have yet to endorse, the logic he uses surrounding many of…

The talk about Greece being kicked out of the euro zone has clearly been overdone. Some have suggested that the Germans had reached their fill and that they would 'stare the Greeks down' in this high stakes game of chicken. I have…

I still find it hard to believe a Greek exit from the euro zone is imminent. So it's good to see someone push back on the concept that a Greek exit from the euro zone is imminent. John Dizard at the FT does just this in a piece out today…

The Spanish banking system is insolvent and the Spanish government simply does not have the wherewithal to clean it up. This is the problem in Spain that has come to a head, particularly now after the rescue of Bankia, Spain's fourth…

In recent months, we have seen a precipitous drop in Chinese trade growth. This comes from both the export and the import side. What's happening? A large part of it is wages. As I indicated two years ago in a post on the Lewis Turning…

I just re-opened the thread on "How and why Greece will leave the euro zone" because there has been so much chatter about a Greek exit. I am still a bit in disbelief that Europe would allow the Greek economy to crumble so much thy would be…

Euro zone bond markets have come completely unhinged this morning. Spanish 10-year yields have hit the highest level this year at 6.5%. While Italian 10-year yields broke above 6% for the first time since late January. Meanwhile, German…

In February I wrote about the political economy of a Greek default (and euro zone exit), predicting that a Grexit was all but inevitable. In the last few days, there has been an almost feverish debate about this issue, so I wanted to update…

The latest data out of China will give those expecting a soft landing pause about China's economic situation. While inflation has come down somewhat of late, so too have industrial output and capital investment. This is creating EM feedback…

The evidence is becoming increasingly clear that German policy makers are prepared for Greece to exit the euro zone. Knowing this changes how one should view the likely policy responses in Europe. In the short term, this means allowing more…