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Markets
Today’s Developments and 4 Important Observations
The market lacks conviction after shrugging off the disappointing European flash PMIs last week. Even though Italian and Spanish bonds are firmer today, outperforming Germany, we detect a deterioration of conditions in Europe and are…
Guess which central bank is going to copy the ECB and provide 3-year loans?
The three-year loans will carry an interest rate initially of the benchmark rate of 70 bp.
Secular Bear Market?
We received a phone call over the weekend from a close friend and someone who reads our comments religiously. He had a question for us. He wanted to know if we were still in the secular bear market camp or have we thrown in the towel since…
Frustrating Friday as Euro and Sterling Bounce Back
The market has shrugged off the disappointing euro zone PMI to take the euro to a marginal new high for the week, and again mapping transversing the range of about $1.3140-$1.3500. Sterling too rose through yesterday's highs, albeit…
Economic Weakness Boosts Demand for Dollar and Yen; Chinese PMI Down
The theme of the day is one of economic weakness. New Zealand GDP (0.3% q/q vs. 0.7% prev), HSBC China PMI (48.1 vs. 49.6 prev), euro zone PMI composite (48.7 vs. 49.3 prev), and UK retail sales (-0.8% m/m vs. 0.6% prev ex-auto fuel) all…
Interest rates at lows as long Kondratiev wave cycle comes to an end
Kondratieff waves are these supercycles that a lot of people have been talking about in the context of the great leveraging that led to crisis in developed economies. We appear to be at the end of one of these waves in bond markets…
Dollar Broadly Stronger on Turnaround Tuesday
The dollar is broadly higher today, and reflects a Turnaround Tuesday from the previous two days of dollar weakness. Italy's Monti has won well-deserved praise since replacing Berlusconi, but his most challenging test begins in earnest…
Government’s role in the subprime crisis
Could a new paper published by researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finally answer the question of whether affordable housing laws caused the subprime crisis? Yes.
Why I Like the Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar held support in the middle of last week near $1.04. Japanese retail and institutional investors, always yield hungry have taken a new look, especially as they begin trying to diversify away from the Brazilian cash…
Chris Whalen has serious questions about the Fed’s stress tests
I love Chris Whalen's bank industry analysis. I featured his CNBC commentary yesterday. Today is his commentary from last night's Capital Account.