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Markets
ECB Preview: SMP sterilization versus reserve requirement changes
there is much discussion of formally ending attempts to sterilize the SMP sovereign bond purchases conducted under ECB President Trichet. While refraining from sterilizing the SMP purchases would boost excess liquidity, we suspect it would…
The carry trade, emerging markets and Japanese retail investors
The share of EM-denominated Uridashi bonds has increased steadily from less than 10% in 2006 to nearly 55% in both 2012 and 2013. So far in 2014, that EM share has risen to over 60%. It is clear that the growth in EM Uridashi issuance has…
Now Is the Time to Buy Gold
China's plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi. Meanwhile in the futures market, the basic problem is that…
Nine Event Risks in the Week Ahead
The investment climate has proven extremely difficult for investors to navigate. Fed tapering and better world growth was to lead to higher interest rates. Yet interest rates for the developed world have fallen sharply in recent weeks.…
The latest picture in Emerging markets and EM currencies
By Win Thin and Ilan Solot
With their backs against the wall, policy changes are ramping up amongst major EM countries. Yet the positive impact has been limited so far. We do note that countries that tightened aggressively and…
Recent Policy Developments in Russia
Russian Economy Minister Ulyukayev proposed a possible delay to the ruble free float from the current 2015 target. Remarks are noteworthy, as most officials have consistently said the float would come in 2015. He added that the ruble float…
Russia bucks the trend – talks the ruble lower
Central banks of several nations who are experiencing sharp currency declines are taking action to stabilize the situation. But not the Russians. The nation's central bank likes the weak ruble because the currency decline boosts the…
Turkey Moves, Focus Shifts to Fed
- The most important development has been the dramatic rate hike by the central bank of Turkey
- The effective tightening by the Turkish central bank was 2.25% - a lot less dramatic than the headlines would suggest
- The rate hikes in…
BRICs under pressure
As the emerging markets contagion spreads, the BRIC nations are coming under increasing pressure in the capital markets. As discussed previously Brazil and Russia are witnessing new multi-year/record lows in their currency valuations.
Chart of the day: US house prices are up 12% in ten years
According to S&P’s Case-Shiler House Price Index, house prices are up on average 12% since 2003. The chart of the path of house prices during that time is below via the New York Times.