Markets

Earlier this morning, the New York Mercantile Exchange was quoting delivery for light sweet crude in July at $43.30. That’s a far cry from the $55 average that analysts had expected for 2017 as recently as last month. And all indications…

New York Fed President William Dudley has reiterating Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s determination to push forward with interest rate hikes despite inflation below 2%. The Fed will continue to have this stance unless and until economic data…

Below are some data points from recent credit statistics and analyses, showing trends in the auto credit sector.

Hiking rates now after a monster commercial real estate cycle has already developed is akin to closing the stable doors after the horse has already bolted. But this may be a concern of the Fed. Let’s see what the Spring 2017 OCC Risk…

On Sunday, macro strategist Lawrence McDonald made three tweets about corporate real estate I think merit highlighting. They show a corporate real estate market that has been white hot during this particular business cycle. And that means…

The US economy has been very resilient during this post-crisis business cycle, as we are now into our ninth year of economic expansion. Soon we could hit a record for the length of an expansion. Yet, with that backdrop, 10-year Treasury…

Fed Governor Jerome Powell recommended a June hike and 2017 balance sheet reductions, in one of the last public speeches by a Fed official before the June FOMC meeting. When the Fed follows Powell’s game plan, we will be in the unchartered…

This is a brief follow-up on the last post I wrote about how markets aren’t freaking out about the Trump scandals. I wrote that "this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative - will not change the arc of the US economy…

We are seeing decent selling in today’s US equity markets, with the VIX up some 25%. And most people are pointing to the Trump scandals. But this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative - will not change the arc of…

Here in Washington, the city is abuzz over the crisis engulfing the Trump Administration. But politics are less important to markets than one might expect, despite markets being forward-looking. That’s because it’s often hard to judge what…