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Browsing Category
Markets
Strong Brazilian Retail Sales, Strong Real
Brazil reported much better than expected Feb retail sales and this is encouraging expectations of a 75 bp rate hike later this month and allowing the real to extend its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session. The real has…
Dollar Correction May Not Be Over
Highlights The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s decline and has largely been confined to narrow trading ranges. With the Greek bill auction behind it, the market may lack a clear focus, but sentiment towards the euro…
It’s All Greek to Me
Highlights The US dollar is broadly mixed today. Details of the funding facility for Greece have spurred strong gains in the euro, lifting European currencies in general. However, the greenback is holding its own against the…
Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB- with a negative outlook
Fitch, the ratings agency, has decided enough is enough and has downgraded Greece to BBB-. This is still investment grade despite obvious signs that Greece is no longer an investment grade risk. Not only are the Greeks now…
Dollar Pares Week’s Gains
Highlights The US dollar has been softening since yesterday in the European morning. There has been follow through in euro buying today after the year’s low was successfully tested yesterday. However, despite…
US Pension Funds are implicitly betting on Dow 40,000
Remember absurd books like Dow 30,000 or Dow 36,000 or the eponymous Dow 40,000? In 2008, I labelled them "Five Books not to buy." Well somebody must be buying them because Dow 40,000 is implicitly what pension funds are expecting…
Greece is the time, is the place, is the motion
Highlights The US dollar is again being broadly supported by heightened concern that Greece’s debt/deficit issues are soon to reach a climax. The pressure on Greece is clearly spilling over to the other Mediterranean…
When the Facts Change
In last month’s letter I looked at the challenges confronting the world’s baby boomers based on the assumption that we are in a structural equity bear market, which implies below average returns for equity investors for several more years…
Are munis the next shoe to drop?
Rick Bookstaber certainly thinks so. He recently wrote a piece which defines the pressure points for market risk and found the municipal bond market to be a problem in need of a solution. Rick writes: I don’t think we will see a…
Bringing back the Scylla and Charybdis flation meme
In June of last year, I wrote a post called "Central banks will face a Scylla and Charybdis flation challenge for years." The crux of the piece was that we are living in a world in which debt deflation is always one downturn away,…