Markets

You saw my Stat of the Day: California now in top ten for highest government default probabilities in the world. Here's a look at those CDS spreads for California over time - Michigan and Illinois are in the mix here too.

With the liquidity crisis surrounding the rollover of Greek debt subsiding, the probability of default for that country has plummeted from nearly even odds to just over one in three. Last Week's Numbers: 06 May 2010 Meanwhile, other…

There's no question that the potential destruction of the euro has moved from the realm of "Black Swan" event to a serious possibility.  Some of chosen to read broader implications into this, suggesting that this is the…

RBS' Chief Market Strategist Bob Janjuah is one of the more bearish prognosticators in global finance.  He takes a fairly anti-fiat currency position and couches what he sees with the present financial crisis as the era of the destruction…

Here's a thought regarding the European liquidity scheme. My understanding is that the ECB is legally prohibited from 'monetizing' Eurozone debt by buying it directly at auction. Therefore, in instituting the nuclear option of buying up…

I still see this phenomenon as a major risk to US growth due to the credit writedowns associated with it. However, the vast majority of house price losses are behind us. If house prices double-dip as they appear to be doing now, the losses…

Here's what I am hearing. There was a "fat finger" that caused someone to execute a large order for PG, a Dow component at a price in the high 30s when it was trading above 60.  Another word out is that someone entered a $16…

Apparently, Greece isn't Europe's Bear Stearns. It's Europe's Lehman. Take cover.

In last month’s Absolute Return Letter I raised a yellow flag concerning the short term outlook for commodities. Quite a few readers asked me to elaborate on that, which is precisely what I am going to do. In the following, my assessment…