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Markets
Hellmeyer Interview Part 2: The uber-bullish case for the global economy and real assets
by Lars Schall Folker Hellmeyer, chief analyst at Bremer Landesbank, gave an exclusive interview to chaostheorien.de. Yesterday we ran the first part of that interview with his take on the so called “Currency Wars,”China's role as a…
Brazil Rate Hike Chatter Picks Up
by Win Thin Chatter about possible Brazil rate hike today is picking up after November IPCA inflation rose 0.83% m/m and 5.63% y/y. The y/y rate is the highest since February 2009, when the SELIC policy rate was 12.75%. While there is a…
Rise in Bond Yields Drives Dollar Strength
Highlights The US dollar headed higher amid a rise in tension on the Korean Peninsula and more importantly a surge in US bond yields with the 10-year increasing by 7bp today. The euro tested levels under $1.320 but sovereign support,…
India and China: Will the Tortoise May Pass the Hare?
by Marc Chandler India's Finance Ministry raised its economic forecast for the year ending March 31, 2011. Back in Feb it had forecast 8.25%-8.75% growth and today increased that forecast to as much as 9.1%. Ironically, the increase in the…
Hellmeyer Interview Part 1: $2,500 is a very conservative forecast for gold
by Lars Schall Folker Hellmeyer, chief analyst at Bremer Landesbank, gave an exclusive interview to chaostheorien.de, with his take on the so called “Currency Wars” and China's role as a stabilizing factor in the world economy. Moreover,…
Irish Budget Likely to Pass, Euro Relief Temporary
Highlights The US dollar is mostly lower on news that US President Obama reached an agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts for another two years, which has lifted stocks and buoyed risk appetite, despite the speculation that China may…
South Korea: On Free-Trade Agreement And Won
by Marc Chandler At the end of last week, the US and Korea appeared to reach the basis of agreement that will also resuscitate the moribund free-trade effort. In essence it appears that slowing down the liberalization in the auto sector…
European Debt Woes Expand As Hungary Downgraded
Moody’s downgraded Hungary two notches to Baa3, matching the BBB- ratings by both S&P and Fitch. Our model has long put Hungary at junk status, and we note that its implied rating deteriorated further in our latest round to BB/Ba2/BB…
The Municipal Bond Pitch: “What You’re Giving Me is Pure Bulls**t”
Undaunted by falling municipal bond prices, rising yields, and withdrawal of funds, research reports by large brokerage firms still mollify the majority of clients and fund managers with numbers and assertions: "General obligation bonds do…
Market Turns it Attention Back to Europe on Eurobond and Hungary
We have long argued that there was less to the EFSF that met the eye due to the need to maintain AAA rating when most members are rated lower. However, to increase the guarantees now could signal that officials are preparing to have to…