Markets

China has retaliated to US duties with tariffs on $50 billion of US goods. An all-out trade war is a distinct possibility.

The upward momentum for US stocks has broken. The S&P 500 closed below it's 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2016. Chief among the factors causing alarm was China's decision to retaliate against US tariffs. More…

Alarm bells should be ringing with New Jersey increasing the assumed rate of return. This is especially true since they are the most underfunded system in the country. Moreover, letting beneficiaries control their own investments is a…

Quick post here. I caught a tweet by Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz this morning noting that the yield curve was at its flattest since the Great Financial Crisis. Looking at the data, I noted that the 10-year bond is trading at only 49 basis…

In his most recent interview, Jeffrey Gundlach says he sees stocks down for the year. He also outlines at what point he sees a bond bear market. Most ominously, however, he describes the Fed as being on autopilot, with this driving the…

Market data don't speak to full employment right now. Inflation expectations would be rising. They don't speak to the 4 or 5% GDP growth Larry Kudlow expects either. Instead we should be wary of potential stagnation, even recession. And a…

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

Danielle's conclusion seems spot on: residential property in the US may not be in a bubble, but houses are certainly no bargain. Her view on housing is that housing affordability at the entry level has declined significantly.

The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets.

The London Inter-Bank Offered Rate is an important benchmark for trillions of dollars of contracts.  The problem is that it was rigged. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate may be an interesting alternative.