Economy

By Sober Look As yesterday's flash PMI numbers show, the declines in iron ore prices (discussed here) were indeed signaling an ongoing broad based slowdown in China's economy. Bloomberg: - China’s manufacturing may be contracting at a…

Editor's Note: this post has been corrected to reflect a different interpretation of the Goldman analyst's remarks. Ex-ECB economist Huw Pill agrees with many of us that the ECB is unlikely to engage in explicit rate targeting when it…

By Marc Chandler In recent weeks, the market had appeared to be scaling back expectations of another round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve.   US 10-year Treasury yields rose nearly 40 bp since the August 1.  The reconsideration…

A few hours ago I wrote a rather downbeat post on the prospects for the US economy that continued the thoughts from an article I wrote in the New York Times. A number of other sources have confirmed some of the logic behind that post since…

I wrote a piece in the New York Times that appeared yesterday along with Mark Thoma and John Cochrane. The question was "Should the Fed Risk Inflation to Spur Growth?" My answer was that the Fed should always keep an eye on inflation as…

By Sober Look With all the conflicting economic indicators coming out of China, it is difficult to gauge whether economic growth has stabilized after recent declines. One indicator that clearly points to potential ongoing slowdown in…

An extremely important interview with ECB board member Joerg Asmussen was carried in the Frankfurter Rundschau recently. Below is a translation with key bits highlighted. Afterward I will interpret his remarks in light of ongoing…

In the short term rebalancing may increase the amount of global demand absorbed by China, but over the longer term it should reduce it. Rebalancing will inevitably result in falling prices for hard commodities, and so will hurt countries…

This Great Graphic comes from an email I received from Thomson Reuters. It charts the nominal effective exchange rates (NEER)of the dollar, euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. It is weighted by trade partner, but is not adjusted for…

By Sober Look China's Ministry of Commerce blamed the increase in vegetable prices on "strong winds and rainfall in the country's eastern regions" that "disrupted production and logistics." Nevertheless vegetable prices are up 15.4% over…