Economy

John Hussman is not buying the recent risk-on sentiment that has developed since September began. For example, retail sales numbers are to be released tomorrow.  Marc Chandler has said that a number above consensus estimates of 0.3%…

by John Lounsbury The BIS (Bank for International Settlements) reported Sunday that it has reached an agreement to increase key capital ratios for banks. The announcement was made by the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the…

A few years ago, Chris Dialynas and I wrote a piece which introduced the concept of “renegade economics”. It was derived from a Frank D. Graham’s 1943 essay titled, “Fundamentals of International Monetary Policy.” Graham, a Princeton…

By most estimates, the statistical recovery which began in the second half of 2009 in the US has been weak. Many had been talking about a V-shaped recovery early this year. However, given the magnitude of the imbalances in the U.S. leading…

This is an interview Whitney did on C-Span last week. It runs an hour and therefore gives you a very comprehensive look at her views on the financial sector and the economy. Enjoy.

by Michael Pettis I apologize for taking so long to write but for the past two weeks (and the next five days) I have been travelling for conferences and meetings.  I spent last week in Buenos Aires at the 75th Anniversary Conference…

Jobless claims have been quite elevated of late, averaging around 450-480,000 for the past few months. While these are worrying figures, they do not in and of themselves point to recession. In my last post I used a chart of the year-on-year…

Seventy years ago next month, Winston Churchill described Soviet foreign policy as a “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. That now may be apropos of the Japanese yen. Japan is a country that appears to be literally in decline.…

by Comstock Partners For some time it has been our view that the recent recession, unlike all other post-war recessions, was caused by a credit crisis, and that it would therefore be followed by a series of weak recoveries and frequent…

I tend to put a lot of stock in jobless claims as a coincident (real-time) indicator of the economic scene. My reasoning here is fairly simple. Household spending makes up 70% of the economy. Households are dependent on labour wages for the…