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Economy
The US economy is doing OK right now
The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But…
Subprime auto delinquency rate at highest level since financial crisis
Increased delinquencies in the auto sector will spell trouble given the high LTVs of loans and lower credit scores of borrowers. And I am troubled by the OCC’s depiction of the commercial real estate sector; we could see heavy loan losses…
Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017
Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.
This is what the Dutch election was all about
On Wednesday night, the Dutch elections saw the two parties in the governing coalition lose 37 of the 79 seats they now hold between them. That's a massive defeat frankly. Yet, the Prime Minister's party is spinning this as a win. And for…
How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits
I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption…
The most important chart to see before the Dutch election
The present Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, is the first Prime Minister from a party other than the two traditional centrist parties, PdVA and the CDA, and their predecessor parties since the Dutch constitution and voting…
US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas
This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating…
US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike
The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but…
Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike
Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good.…
Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years
It’s not the actual level of jobless claims that matters. It’s the change from one year to the next, due to the income shock associated with job losses.