Economy

China data came in stronger than expected, and supports the view that PBOC is moving behind the curve with its gradualist approach and that it needs to get more aggressive. Q1 11 GDP growth slowed slightly to 9.7% y/y from 9.8% y/y in Q4…

This comes via Market Watch: Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday lowered its view on China’s property sector, warning that a slowdown is underway with credit conditions forecast to tighten over the next 18 months. However, the…

If China does continue to tighten to fight inflation as I also indicated I expect they will, the hard landing scenario is definitely something to consider. Early evidence shows that the property bubble is coming off the boil. But it is…

Roach talks to Bloomberg's Carol Massar about the risks to an economy operating at stall speed as well as Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic lessons from Japan's lost decades. He thinks a recessionary relapse is more likely than…

No, I am not talking about tonight's speech from President Obama. This is about another President's speech, very loosely based on the Oscar Winner, "The King's Speech". Can you guess who the President is? Have a look at the video.…

A sovereign nation that issues debt in its own fiat currency cannot default involuntarily. Again, this is the Ecuador risk factor, defaulting for purely political reasons, not because of the inability to pay. It is not clear whether there…

The Vickers report came out in Britain identifying areas where Britain's banking system needed to alter its regulatory structure. Simon Johnson talked to Bloomberg about this report and banking regulation in general. His view is that first…

What we would like to see is commodity prices falling or stagnating. And that would certainly be the case if demand destruction is already beginning as the IEA analysis suggests. Moreover, QE is ending in June. So that won't be a factor in…

The U.S. narrowly avoided a federal government shutdown this past weekend. While President Obama has hailed the compromise which allowed the government to continue to function, it is already clear that more shutdown battles are coming very…

Below is a video of Richard Koo from this past weekend's INET conference in Bretton Woods giving us his latest thoughts on policy responses to a balance sheet recession. He believes that Europe, the U.S. and China have much to learn from…