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Browsing Category
Economy
To QE3 Or Not To QE3, That Is The Question
So what are the realistic chances of another bout of QE right now? Well according to Robin Harding they are pretty slim, and it is hard not to agree with him (due to the anticipated voter backlash in the US), yet among professional analysts…
From cautious optimism to caution
I am more cautious than optimistic on risk assets and the global economy. From where I sit global growth prospects are not improving; they are weakening.
QE3 will only become a reality after the economy deteriorates
As Jon Hilsenrath pointed out in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal Bernanke has already indicated that the hurdle to more quantitative easing is very high. This is not to say that QE3 is off the table forever. But QE3 will only become a…
Playing Old Maid
The BLS invented 206,000 jobs. The Bureau has constructed an equation called the "Net Birth/Death Model." Its purpose is to count "Business births." That is, new jobs in new businesses net the number of lost jobs in "Business deaths":…
Portuguese Politics Morphs into Technocrat Choice
There is unlikely to be a dramatic market reaction to the Portuguese election results. The news stream from Greece is seen as more important.
Crisis is Not Behind Us
Wray’s view: Banks are bigger than before the crisis. But, despite their books showing profits, it is not clear if they are adequately reserving for loans and liabilities already on their balance sheets. The right approach is to actually…
BELLS in Hell that Don’t Go Ting-a-Ling-a-Ling
The BELLS are a group of four countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) who in their wisdom decided to adopt and then stick “come hell or high water” to a currency peg with to Euro. Thus was opened one of the more interesting and…
ISM manufacturing index confirms growth slowdown
The soft patch in and of itself is not a problem. There is always some sort of mid-cycle slowdown. The real problem for economic growth bulls (and risk assets) is that this particular soft patch is increasingly likely to be met with…
Financial Shock and Awe in China
To sum up: Non-performing loans look to be a full 10% of Chinese GDP. That’s high. The Chinese government is confronting this writedown problem head-on. While a number of analysts have opinions on the measures just taken, it is far from…
China: First the credit writedowns, but then what?
The immediate problem is the excess capital investment and the costly maintenance of the projects it has spawned. Longer-term, Asia's growth prospects look good.