Bronze

I am using Tesla as an example here more than anything. I am not about to delve into Tesla's loss-making operations and make a case against the stock specifically. But I do want to highlight the 'bubble' that Tesla represents.

There are reasonable scenarios in which monetary policy continues to tighten, fiscal policy does not loosen and the economic trajectory slides down into stall speed, even before the full economic impact of tariffs are felt.

The latest report on weekly claims for unemployment insurance was released today showing 221,000 new claims. That takes the 4-week average to 222,250, which compares favourably to the year ago figure of 241,250. Some comments below I…

At some point, the ECB will likely be called into action. And they will give Italy an ultimatum on the fiscal front, just as they did with Greece.

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.

Fiscal policy space is limited first and foremost because of the threat of default. So governments are forced to act pro-cyclically.

As a member of the euro area, Italy has no monetary sovereignty. The only thing keeping its debt yields low is the implicit backstop of the ECB. But because of the political turmoil, this backstop is now in question. And Italy could default…

North Korea is sometimes (hyperbolically) referred to as a Chinese client state. And this seems to be the perception that Trump has developed as well.

I want to make the case for thinking about the next recession now. And I lot of this goes back to what I wrote last November about now being the most dangerous period in the business cycle. Here's the basic framing.

As the Fed raises rates, it will likely be surprised both by how fragile EMEs are and by the spillover impact Fed policy still has abroad