Bronze member posts
Unilateral German action on the border is a game changer in Europe
Why does the German immigration spat matter? It's not just about refugees. It's about German hegemony and European cohesion. This post explains.
The politics of the German refugee crisis
Seehofer is and has been threatening to blow up the governing coalition for some time. But will he actually do it? Will blowing up the coalition backfire? No one knows. He certainly doesn't. So he may just be bluffing.
A brief note on the political crisis at the Fed
Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 2 Jul 2018 I saw a Twitter exchange this morning that reminded me that the Fed is facing a political crisis due to its quantitative easing program. And I think this will limit the Fed's…
The low-hanging fruit of macro investing
My own view is that getting the economics makes macro hard is problem number one. But just as big a problem is that macro investing is supposed to be contrarian. And contrarian bets work best when the world is in a panic and volatility is…
Asylum, economic migration and exploitation
This post was first published on Patreon on 22 Jun 2018 I was just having an email exchange with Marshall Auerback and a hedge fund friend of ours about immigration. And I thought I would share some of my thoughts on this given what's…
Brinkmanship and the loss of American soft power
This post was first published on Patreon on 20 Jun 2018 Last July, I was in Germany for a high school graduation. And as the only American family member in attendance, I got a lot of questions about Donald Trump. What I said then was that…
The Fed’s dot plot and the case for a 4th hike in the June policy statement
Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…
Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize
In the midterms, the Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping to generate a lot of enthusiasm by being against Trump. But I am not at all convinced this will turn out negatively for Trump and the Republicans.
How Italian political figures talk about the fiscal situation in Italy
The Italian government will do whatever it takes to remain in the Euro. When others outside of government talk about Italexit and the like, it is meaningless. That's the message Tria is sending.
What kind of game is Trump playing with Canada?
Maybe he just wants to get concessions out of the Chinese and the Mexicans and he is willing to take heat on (temporarily) damaging relationships with the Canadians. I suspect this may be what he is after.