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Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Markets

Chart of the Day: Performance across fixed income classes during 2013

Sober Look Aug 19, 2013

Given the ongoing volatility in fixed income markets, it's time to once again to take a look at performance. The chart below shows where we stand on a year-to-date basis for major asset classes from a USD investor's point of view.

Economy

Brazil: Markets test central bank as currency touches new low

Sober Look Aug 14, 2013

Brazil's financial markets remain under pressure. In spite of some recent interventions, including a rate hike, the currency touched another multi-year low today. The market is "testing" the central bank with bets that the real has more…

Political Economy

Five reasons why China will scrap the one-child policy

Sober Look Aug 12, 2013

By Sober Look Rumors have been circulating for some time in the media that China is considering scrapping the one-child policy that was launched back in 1979. But the nation's official paper suggested last week that although plans to…

Economy

Household income in the U.S. remains well below pre-recession levels

Sober Look Aug 10, 2013

By Sober Look One of the key reasons for the mediocre economic growth in the US has been the ongoing weakness in household wages. As the chart below shows, US median inflation-adjusted household income (red line) remains well below…

Markets

It’s the UK’s turn to face “taper fear”

Sober Look Aug 9, 2013

By Sober Look Today we saw another confirmation that the UK's placement on the economic cycle curve (see post) in the "recovery acceleration" section is quite reasonable. The KPMG/REC employment report for the UK showed something we haven't…

Economy

The US Student Loan Problem

Sober Look Aug 5, 2013

By Sober Look The US Congress is nearing a compromise on the issue of student loan interest rates. Apparently loan rates will be changed from fixed to floating with an overall cap (see story). While rates are important, there is a much…

Economy

RBI struggles as India’s short-term yield goes vertical

Sober Look Aug 1, 2013

By Sober Look Here is a quick update on India's ongoing financial stress. Capital outflows from stocks over the past couple of months reached a post-2008 high, prompting Goldman to downgrade the nation's equity market. Bloomberg: -…

Markets

House price inflation causing problems for many in the US

Sober Look Jul 30, 2013

Economists and the markets have been cheering the jump in housing prices and improving construction statistics. But for many Americans rising demand and higher house prices bring more bad news.

Five reasons the Fed’s taper will begin in September

Sober Look Jul 29, 2013

Sober look argues that little doubt remains at this stage that the Fed will begin slowing its securities purchases this September. The central bank under Bernanke's leadership has been highly focused on data and will consider the following…

Political Economy

Right now the bet is for Larry Summers as Fed Chair

Sober Look Jul 25, 2013

Within the next few months the Obama administration is expected to announce a nominee for Ben Bernanke's replacement. Two names have been bounced around recently: Janet Yellen and Larry Summers. According to Google Trends, here is what…