The Greek capitulation puts nationalism centre stage
Over the past week, European institutions have shown no qualms about bullying, arm-twisting, and humiliating a sovereign nation and its people. This is no union – this is a fiasco.
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Grexit is much closer than we think
The Greek government has now been boxed in by the “no” referendum vote and is unable to make the kinds of concessions a “yes” vote would have allowed. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup’s thinking about the manageability of Grexit is coalescing…
More on Greek Tax Anticipation Note IOUs
The rumour making the rounds today is that these two paragraphs in a recent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard piece in the Telegraph are what were the final straw for Syriza that cost Yanis Varoufakis his job. I don’t know whether there is any basis…
Institutions’ negotiating stance now untenable
In the wake of the decisive “No” referendum vote by the Greek electorate and related events, the negotiating landscape has shifted substantially. The negotiating position of the institutions now looks untenable. But this by no way changes…
Now that Greece has defaulted, what comes next?
The easy part of gauging likely outcomes in the Greek sovereign debt crisis was predicting default within the eurozone. But now that this has happened, the situation becomes murkier and it is unclear what will happen next. Below I will put…
The Euro is a failure
When I was discussing the Greek economic crisis last night with my colleague Ameera David, she asked me who I blame for the mess we are in. I told her I blame the euro because the euro is a monetary union created for political reasons…
Greek default and Grexit now increasing in probability
At this point, default within the eurozone is the best case scenario for Greece. Grexit is still a distinct possibility. All potential best case scenarios are out the window. Below is my assessment on how we got here.
The Greece debt bailout negotiations are really about France, not Greece
The situation in Greece is not about Greece at all. It is about enforcing an economic framework onto all Eurozone countries. And because the policy goal is primarily about enforcing this economic framework everywhere in the eurozone, there…
The US economy growth path remains in the 2 to 3% range
The most recent retail sales numbers confirm the first quarter dip in GDP as an aberration. The US economy’s growth path, while subpar and uneven, remains on track. Some thoughts below
Greece: Default within the eurozone is nearing as Troika tables take-it-or-leave-it deal
Greece has reached the end of the line. Its debt repayment schedule is so large in early June that it will definitely run out of money without a deal. And judging from the latest negotiations, a deal that is mutually agreeable is not on the…