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Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

China’s stock markets and revisiting 2011 predictions

Edward Harrison Aug 19, 2015

By Michael Pettis originally written on 31 Jul 2015 I plan to post a new entry very soon but before doing so I wanted to say a few things about the stock markets, which continue to be insane (but not unexpectedly so) and then repost a…

Markets

China’s new currency regime virtually guarantees currency depreciation

Edward Harrison Aug 12, 2015

For several months now, I have been hearing stories about the risk of capital flight and capital outflows out of China. At the same time, perhaps as a result of these outflows, traders have recently been trading CNY/USD at the upper end of…

Markets

Bearish signals: Yield curve flattens, spreads widen, China devalues as Fed prepares hikes

Edward Harrison Aug 11, 2015

Yesterday I mentioned markers of economic and financial weakness that I believe show cracks in the facade of benign economic data out of the US and Europe. Today I want to briefly go through a few of these data points and highlight what…

Markets

China’s outright devaluation is a game changer in the currency wars

Edward Harrison Aug 11, 2015

Back in March, I was saying that China would be hard-pressed to maintain its dollar peg if a strong dollar persisted. The deflationary pressures in China are simply too large. Today we learned that it has finally succumbed to that pressure…

Economy

The transformation of China as marginal buyer of last resort to exporter of deflation worldwide

Edward Harrison Aug 10, 2015

I know the title of this post has a somewhat alarmist feel to it. However, I think it is the title that best describes the biggest macro theme now unfolding in the global economy. I have been in Grand Canyon country in the southwest of the…

Economy

US growth in 2-3% range is dollar bullish but EM bearish

Edward Harrison Jul 30, 2015

As Q2 continued along, it became ever more evident that private forecasts above 3% annualized were overly optimistic and that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast below 1% would get revised up. We met in the middle at 2.3%. What’s more is Q1…

Markets

More on king dollar and EM (and shale producer) vulnerability

Edward Harrison Jul 29, 2015

Last week the Fed admitted to having mistakenly made public forecasts by staff economists which suggested that the Fed is indeed on a 2015 rate hike path. As a result, policy divergence is now set to widen, with the result being a bid for…

Political Economy

Did lending by foreign banks really cause the Greek debt crisis?

Edward Harrison Jul 23, 2015

There are a lot of competing narratives going around as to why Greece is in such trouble relative to the rest of the eurozone. A lot of this centers on whether Greek fiscal profligacy or poor credit controls by foreign banks was the main…

Markets

King dollar and the global economy

Edward Harrison Jul 21, 2015

Now that the Greek crisis has died down, we can return to surveying the global economy for clues as to whether global growth will continue unabated. My sense right now is that the major theme to watch remains policy divergence, with the US…

Political Economy

Variable geometry and the choice of default within the eurozone or Grexit revisited

Edward Harrison Jul 20, 2015

I am hoping to move away from Greece with this post that sums up my view on the situation. I have always believed Greece would eventually have to exit the eurozone due to the economic strictures imposed upon it. However, until the coming to…

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