Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

Using QE instead of rate cuts for cycle trough stimulus for US adjustment

Edward Harrison May 27, 2015

Over the past couple of years, there has been a decent amount of chatter about the Fed’s not being able to ‘reload’ in order to have enough tools to deal effectively with the next cyclical trough. And while the fear of running out of runway…

Economy

US growth estimates for 2015 decline, and rightly so

Edward Harrison May 18, 2015

Growth estimates for the full year are now diving to under 3% due to weakness in early Q2 data. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is having difficulty deciphering what this means for interest rate policy. For now, however, policy divergence,…

Economy

US: Failure of borrow to spend means susceptible stall speed economy

Edward Harrison May 14, 2015

Yesterday, the big news for US data was poor post-winter retail sales. I believe US consumption growth still supports a 2 or even 3%ish level of GDP growth. It is actually elsewhere where the US economy has shifted down: inventories,…

Economy

Continued European growth and the Greek outlier

Edward Harrison May 13, 2015

Europe is growing again and I see this growth phase lasting a while unless something in the Greek negotiation derails it. And while the Greek negotiations are tense I still believe Greece is an outlier that has indeed been isolated, making…

Economy

Borrowing to spend in America and the credit accelerator

Edward Harrison May 8, 2015

The US economy’s upswing over the last six years has been predicated on credit like the cycle before it because wage growth has been lacklustre. I want to describe where credit activity has created a lift in consumer spending and in capital…

Markets

The backup in European yields and Yellen’s comments on market froth

Edward Harrison May 7, 2015

Two notable events regarding stock and bond markets have occurred in the last twenty-four hours. One is comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggest she sees U.S. equity prices as elevated. The second is a wide-spread backup in yields…

Markets

Australia cuts as global growth slows

Edward Harrison May 5, 2015

My thesis for the global economy right now is that global nominal GDP growth will continue to slow, leading to more policy accommodation, with the outliers converging toward zero. The question mark in this is the Federal Reserve. Generally,…

Markets

The Fed bias remains toward tightening

Edward Harrison Apr 30, 2015

I don’t think we got any new information from the economy or the Fed yesterday. While the GDP report was below expectations, it was exactly where the Atlanta Fed said it would be. And the Fed has not altered its stance. It is prepared to…

Political Economy

Some thoughts on the coming defaults of Greece

Edward Harrison Apr 27, 2015

After the meeting in Riga, it is more clear than ever that the gap between Greece and the Eurogroup finance ministers is wide. Default looks likely and so we have to start thinking about what this means for Greece and for Europe. My base…

Monetary System

Monetary offset, fiscal determinism and asset bubbles: a Wynne Godley-style mental model for US…

Edward Harrison Apr 17, 2015

Yesterday was a big conference day in Washington, D.C., with the IMF and World Bank meeting and with the Brookings Institution holding an event featuring the Greek and German finance ministers. While I attended the Brookings event, the…

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