Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

How would markets deal with a Petrobras default?

Edward Harrison Apr 15, 2015

The question of whether markets are prepared for the default of such a large debtor is a good one to ask in thinking about tail risk as the situation at Petrobras encapsulates the intersection of emerging market US dollar corporate debt,…

Economy

US Economy: Q1 as a mid-cycle pause

Edward Harrison Apr 14, 2015

I have mentioned 1994 as a benign comparison for the US economy of 2015 as opposed to the 1937 comparison Ray Dalio made recently. Having looked at reasonable worst case scenarios with 1997 Japan as a model, I want to look at upside…

Markets

Low oil prices, market death and looming crisis in the oil patch

Edward Harrison Apr 13, 2015

A number of stories over the past week that I don’t have a full analysis for are interesting enough that I want to mention them in a potpourri post of market news. I don’t have a view on all of these stories but I do think these are some of…

Markets

The four horsemen of this cyclical bull market rally

Edward Harrison Apr 10, 2015

Yesterday I made up the phrase “The Four Horsemen of this rally” when discussing the bull market rally with a colleague. What I was trying to get at was the unsustainable nature of a divergence between top line revenue growth and the…

Markets

Quick thoughts on the US economy and equity markets

Edward Harrison Apr 6, 2015

This past week, I have been focusing on the US economy and the Fed’s reaction function. I would summarize my view as positive about the cyclical trajectory of the US economy but concerned about so-called secular stagnation due to high…

Economy

More on looking through weak Q1 data after a weak jobs report

Edward Harrison Apr 3, 2015

As I indicated yesterday, if the Fed is narrowly focused on the long-term path of inflation and arriving at a NAIRU-style full employment threshold, the data are relatively categorical that liftoff must begin this summer. However, I believe…

Markets

Should the Fed look through weak Q1 consumption data?

Edward Harrison Apr 2, 2015

The biggest question facing the Federal reserve is whether their data dependency means looking through weak Q1 data and raising rates this summer anyway. Given the key elements of the Fed’s reaction function as I laid them out yesterday,…

Markets

Japan redux: Fed rate hikes are coming this year, but at what pace?

Edward Harrison Apr 1, 2015

The title of this post is what the Fed wants us to believe. It wants us to believe that it is prepared to raise interest rates this year but that it will increase them slowly by assessing the data, hiking once and re-assessing, and then…

Economy

The US Armageddon Scenario Part 2

Edward Harrison Mar 31, 2015

The last post was an attempt to describe a reasonable worse case scenario for the US real economy as relatively benign compared to 1937, a comparison making the rounds these days due to a piece by Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio. My point is that…

Economy

The US Armageddon Scenario and 1937

Edward Harrison Mar 30, 2015

The title of this post is a bit alarmist. But what I intend to write is more about reasonable worst case economic scenarios that the Fed is looking to avoid. While a 1937-style downdraft is something to consider down the line, in the…

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