Commodities complex worsening

My argument has been that the US economy is not yet at stall speed and that recession is not on the horizon. However, I believe the US is slowing, and that, in conjunction with a strong dollar and the ongoing global growth slowdown, this…

Signals of slowing

Today's post is going to be a bit of a hodge podge because I didn't have a single theme to report on as I started out. If I had to give this post a title, the overarching theme would be "signals of slowing". What I am seeing is nothing to…

The flagging German economy

Germany is a very open economy given its size, with exports at 45.6% of GDP compared to less than 14% for the United States. This makes Germany more vulnerable than most to the global growth slowdown, especially given its recent turn to…

Profit mean reversion and recession

Yesterday I retweeted an interesting tweet by Business Insider’s Henry Blodget which references an article on data compiled by Barclays on profit mean reversion and recession. The gist of the article is that a profits recession generally…

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