Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Political Economy

Bill Gross on helicopter money and Universal Basic Income

Edward Harrison May 4, 2016

Technological advancement in a world of high private debt means a substitution of capital for labor without big increases in demand. It is a recipe for low or negative growth. Add in demographic challenges in many countries and you have a…

Economy

Where would the US be today without the shale stimulus?

Edward Harrison May 2, 2016

When one thinks about why the US has outperformed, a lot of the analysis is destined to focus on fiscal and monetary policy. And while I think that’s an important thought process to go through, I believe that bank recapitalization and shale…

Economy

The Bank of Japan’s inaction and the Fed’s tightening bias with GDP slowing

Edward Harrison Apr 28, 2016

Soft data in the US and Japan was not enough to spur central banks in either country into action over the last two days. For me, it highlights first how vulnerable the global economy is. But, more than that, it points to the ineffectiveness…

Economy

Fed policy in an election year of slowing growth

Edward Harrison Apr 27, 2016

US and global economic growth is slowing. And this has caught the Fed out given its rate hike in December. The question, now, therefore is whether the Fed continues to hike in the face of this slowing, given the election looming in…

Economy

Is the Fed panicked about the downshift in the US economy?

Edward Harrison Apr 7, 2016

The minutes from the Federal Reserve Board's last meeting have come out and they are dovish. While on the one hand, we should praise the Fed for showing it is data-dependent as it has professed to be, on the other hand the abrupt change in…

Economy

How the US economy is shaping up in 2016 and how the Fed will react

Edward Harrison Mar 4, 2016

The US economy - while still far from recession - is still downshifting. At the same time, the Federal Reserve - while less hawkish than in December - is still in tightening mode. This combination still makes recession a reasonable worst…

Political Economy

How the Fed could cause recession in 2016

Edward Harrison Feb 12, 2016

The Fed began to tighten monetary policy in May 2013, when it announced its intention to taper large scale asset purchases. Despite Fed chair Janet Yellen’s recognition in recent testimony before Congress that financial conditions had…

Economy

My thoughts on the US Q4 2015 GDP numbers

Edward Harrison Jan 29, 2016

The US economy is not in a recession right now and the latest numbers on US GDP confirm this view. And while the headline growth number was weak, the consumer spending and personal income numbers are supportive of 2%ish growth into 2016.…

Economy

We are not in recession right now

Edward Harrison Jan 27, 2016

While the US economy has decelerated enough since mid-2015 to put me on recession watch, it has not reached the point of recession. Moreover, the data do not indicate a recession is in the offing in the near-term. Rather, a combination of…

Economy

How this business cycle ends due to credit writedowns

Edward Harrison Jan 19, 2016

About a month ago, I wrote a post on how market contagion would happen due to deteriorating credit conditions in energy high yield. And while this doesn’t necessarily lead to recession or financial crisis, it has already meant a real…

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