Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Economy

Some initial thoughts on Trump’s victory

Edward Harrison Nov 9, 2016

Donald Trump's election as President of the United States last night was a surprising and historic event. I think a lot of people are surprised given UK bookmakers had him at 150 to one odds. I would say the shock politically ranks higher…

Markets

Demographics are driving wages lower, which is negative for investment returns

Edward Harrison Sep 28, 2016

For managers of money, the post-crisis low growth world has had major implications for asset allocation strategies. Assumptions about returns are greatly affected by the both monetary easing used to counteract the slowing and the yield…

Economy

Monetary policy is at the end of the line

Edward Harrison Sep 23, 2016

The last few days have made clear that monetary policy is having less and less impact as time goes along.In particular, the latest salvos from the Bank of Japan smack of desperation, as if BOJ Governor Kuroda has decided to throw everything…

Markets

Upbeat macro thoughts as Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium begins

Edward Harrison Aug 24, 2016

I haven’t posted much recently - mostly because there haven’t been many developments economically that change my macro view. We still live in a slow growth world, where recession is not the base case n the US, the UK, or the eurozone. And…

Political Economy

Re-calibrating our thinking about Brexit after MPC rate cut

Edward Harrison Aug 4, 2016

The Bank of England has cut interest rates and started a quantitative easing program that includes both government and corporate bonds. This approach was enough to send the pound Sterling down to $1.31 and 10-year gilt rates to a record low…

Political Economy

The EU as a larger Germany post-Brexit and Hugh Hendry’s Eclectica Fund commentary

Edward Harrison Jul 13, 2016

Stocks have mostly recovered since Brexit and the strong dollar and Yen have reversed much of their overvaluation in recent days. The question remains as to what the fallout from the UK’s departure from the EU will be. I continue to believe…

Economy

The problem at euro banks

Edward Harrison Jul 11, 2016

As the Brexit worries began two weeks ago, I flagged Italian banks - more than the UK economy - as one of my principle concerns, because of the potential to cause systemic damage to the euro system. And now the contagion is spreading, with…

Economy

The British political landscape after the EU referendum

Edward Harrison Jul 8, 2016

This is going to be a quick post to update you on where I think things are headed now that we have the two final candidates for UK Prime Minister. My overall view continues to be that the base case is for a moderate negative economic,…

Political Economy

Leading UK PM Brexit strategies taking shape with May and Leadsom

Edward Harrison Jul 5, 2016

At this juncture, the leading candidates for British Prime Minister are both women on either side of the referendum vote. However, both are saying they will guide the UK out of the European Union. Meanwhile Chancellor George Osborne’s…

Markets

UK fiscal and monetary policy offset to kick in, bullish for gilts

Edward Harrison Jul 1, 2016

UK Chancellor Osborne has now abandoned his 2020 budget surplus target. Combine this with the dovish statements by Bank of England governor Mark Carney yesterday and you can see some serious policy changes in play to minimize the near-term…

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