Bullish US jobs data portend more rate hikes to come
Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year
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GDPNow latest reading for Q1 2018 is 5.4%
The Atlanta Fed updated its nowcast model today with the ISM results we reported earlier. The numbers are big.
ISM manufacturing index is strong, shows rising producer inflation
The latest ISM Manufacturing Index came out earlier today. The numbers were strong, and the 69.1% reading was above expectations.
The Bond Bear Market, Greenspan Edition
Everyone is bond bearish these days. Alan Greenspan is because he expects inflation. But this will mean tightening that risks derailing the US economy in 2019 and beyond.
The State of the Union, Fed Edition
The state of the nation is as good as it is going to get during this business cycle — at least from an economic perspective. On that, we should be a lot more interested in what Janet Yellen has to say in her last FOMC press conference.
The Bond Bear Market
The position I have stressed is one that is counter to the bond bear market narrative. But, that is longer-term. Shorter-term dynamics are bond bearish.
Gallup: Views on the State of the Nation Show Heavy Partisanship
With Donald Trump set to give his State of the Union address, Democrats and Independents have gone from positive in 2017 to negative in 2018, while Republicans have gone in the other direction.
Grantham: The essence of every bubble is wonderful fundamentals, euphorically extrapolated
Jeremy Grantham discussed his recent US market commentary with Consuelo Mack. The essence of Grantham’s comments were bearish for the US, suggesting investors could expect only a couple of percent real return over the next couple of decades…
Gallup: Half of Small-Business Owners Give Trump Administration High Marks
Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.
US small business optimism at decade highs as we await GDP report
Small business optimism is at a 10-year high on the eve of the latest US GDP report - another bullish indicator. Inflation is the key to how this impacts bonds longer-term.