Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

Market correction: Will the volatility end if inflation data remain muted?

Edward Harrison Feb 8, 2018

This month, we have seen an unprecedented increase in volatility. When the fundamentals take a knock, that’s when we should worry though. Let’s wait for the CPI next week and revisit this conversation.

Economy

Large new deficits will alarm the Fed and precipitate tightening

Edward Harrison Feb 8, 2018

With the Fed already on notice about inflation because of “low, low unemployment”, massive amounts of new deficit spending will only move up their timetable. And bond rates will rise as a result.

Economy

How likely is an upward revision to Q4 GDP growth?

Edward Harrison Feb 7, 2018

A big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.

Markets

Market meltdown post-mortem and some comments on wage growth

Edward Harrison Feb 7, 2018

The short vol trade may now be over. Bond yields will again reach levels that causes angst for equity markets. And equities will tumble. Rinse and repeat.

Markets

This market correction reduces the risk of over-tightening

Edward Harrison Feb 6, 2018

Yesterday’s market meltdown - and today's reaction - reduces the risk that the Fed will over-tighten, taking froth out of an over-extended market.

Monetary System

How do we know when we are in a recession?

Edward Harrison Feb 5, 2018

Hallmarks of recession are all around about the time they happen if one looks close enough — certainly in 2008. I don’t think we are in a recession by any stretch, right now — not even close.

Economy

State-by-state data show rising wages in more than half of US states

Edward Harrison Feb 5, 2018

Reuters has done a state-by-state analysis of wage data in the US, showing average pay rising over 3% in more than half of US states. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Monetary System

The Fed’s dilemma

Edward Harrison Feb 5, 2018

Powell mentioned financial stability as a concern as he was sworn in today. With markets taking a dive, it’s not clear what that will mean in terms of policy.

Monetary System

How to front-run market reaction to the US government’s 2018 $1 trillion bond issuance

Edward Harrison Feb 4, 2018

When defaults begin to rise and the economy begins to slow, we will find out whether deficits really drive rates higher or cause inflation to rise and remain high.

Monetary System

The rise in average hourly earnings trails the 1990s and the 2000s

Edward Harrison Feb 2, 2018

We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.

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