Bill Gross: The bond bear actually began 18 months ago, after the Brexit vote
Even though commentary focused on the prevailing bond levels today, what Gross is saying is that the bottom in yields was actually July 2016, 18 months ago.
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Proof that bonds are moving more because of the Fed than China
2018 has started with a lot of angst about bond yields. And there is some cause to be concerned. But this owes to an economy that is growing more briskly and to the Fed that has been and probably will be more hawkish than you think.
It’s the booming economy driving bond prices down, not Chinese selling
Until we see the US economy slowing, we should expect rates to rise. And if inflation starts to rise, rates will rise further still.
On China, Japan and the Eurozone’s determining US interest rates
Claims that moves by central banks in China, Japan and Europe are dominating the US Treasury market are flawed because the 'model' used to make those claims is flawed.
Gundlach vs Gross: Here’s how a bond bear market starts
It’s semantics whether 2.50%, 2.63% or 3.00% is the right level to declare a bear market in bonds. What matters is that the two best-known bond market investors are now saying we are in or near a bond bear market.
Galbraith: The Fed is like the little Dutch boy with the finger in the dike
There hasn’t been inflation in the economy since the early 1980s. It collapsed with the end of the Soviet Union and with the rise of China as a supplier for consumer goods.
Job openings may have peaked in the US
While the month-to-month numbers were ordinary, the trend for the past few months is down.
Consumer credit: largest gain in 16 years and well ahead of expectations
Economic data coming out of the United States continue to show a robust consumer-led expansion. The latest consumer credit report showed the largest monthly gain since November 2001, with outstanding consumer credit rising by $27.95…
Demographics are adding to lower US growth
When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics.
Growth in non-farm payrolls peaks mid-cycle
You don’t get the same level of job growth after eight years of an economic upturn as you do after one. And this is borne out by the statistics.