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Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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Tariffs could result in a global recession

Edward Harrison May 31, 2018

There are reasonable scenarios in which monetary policy continues to tighten, fiscal policy does not loosen and the economic trajectory slides down into stall speed, even before the full economic impact of tariffs are felt.

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Jobless claims are still pointing to US expansion

Edward Harrison May 31, 2018

The latest report on weekly claims for unemployment insurance was released today showing 221,000 new claims. That takes the 4-week average to 222,250, which compares favourably to the year ago figure of 241,250. Some comments below I…

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Why the Italian crisis won’t see Italy leave the euro just yet

Edward Harrison May 31, 2018

At some point, the ECB will likely be called into action. And they will give Italy an ultimatum on the fiscal front, just as they did with Greece.

Gold

No, the Fed hasn’t lost control of overnight rates. Zoltan Pozsar is wrong.

Edward Harrison May 31, 2018

I continue to believe that the bond bear market thesis is flawed. Money managers following it will lose a lot of money.

Economy

Service sector job growth peaked almost two years ago

Edward Harrison May 30, 2018

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 30 May 2018 After I wrote the last post, Kent Willard made a really good comment about service sector jobs versus goods-producing jobs that I want to expand upon. He said "there's a growing…

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Since job gains peak mid-cycle, don’t expect the jobs report to throw the Fed off course

Edward Harrison May 30, 2018

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.

Gold

More on why Italy is not yet a threat to the economy or markets

Edward Harrison May 30, 2018

This post was originally published on Patreon on 30 May 2018 Yesterday I said that I believed the Italian meltdown presented a buying opportunity because it was not existential. And today, calm has returned, actually sooner than I had…

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