Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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Why the European sovereign debt crisis is back on

Edward Harrison May 29, 2018

As a member of the euro area, Italy has no monetary sovereignty. The only thing keeping its debt yields low is the implicit backstop of the ECB. But because of the political turmoil, this backstop is now in question. And Italy could default…

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Some quick thoughts on the North Korea summit collapse and Chinese trade

Edward Harrison May 24, 2018

North Korea is sometimes (hyperbolically) referred to as a Chinese client state. And this seems to be the perception that Trump has developed as well.

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Why now is the time to start thinking about the next recession

Edward Harrison May 24, 2018

I want to make the case for thinking about the next recession now. And I lot of this goes back to what I wrote last November about now being the most dangerous period in the business cycle. Here's the basic framing.

Economy

Adam Smith and the meaning of high profit margins at Google and Facebook

Edward Harrison May 22, 2018

There are two ways to explain persistently high corporate profit margins. One interpretation is about inequity, and implicitly about corporatism masquerading as liberty. And the other is about network effects creating an age of winner take…

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Powell to emerging markets: you’re on your own

Edward Harrison May 17, 2018

As the Fed raises rates, it will likely be surprised both by how fragile EMEs are and by the spillover impact Fed policy still has abroad

Monetary System

Geopolitical (and market) risks because of US policy and the Fed

Edward Harrison May 17, 2018

Policy divergence is the driver of market vulnerabilities. The longer the US stands alone in tightening policy, the greater the stress on the financial system.

Economy

Chart of the day: Real average hourly earnings

Edward Harrison May 10, 2018

Noah Smith notes that wages aren’t the only way Americans make money. Increasingly, income comes via nonwage compensation and government transfers.

Markets

Why I’m not an emerging markets bull

Edward Harrison May 7, 2018

It's early days. So I wouldn't call this a crisis. What I would say, however, is that the Fed's rate hike train is doubly negative for the emerging markets. We can see the effects in Argentina and Turkey in particular.

Economy

The biggest jobs report takeaway is the growth in non-farm payrolls

Edward Harrison May 4, 2018

Job growth has now begun a slight re-acceleration. If this trend holds, the unemployment rate will drop into the mid 3% range and the Fed will move to a fourth rate hike. The mix of continued job growth, tightening monetary policy, and late…

Markets

Preparing your portfolio for recession in a flattening curve environment

Edward Harrison May 1, 2018

I've talked about 12-18 between curve inversion and recession months as a rule of thumb. That gives you at least a year to rotate your portfolio and get defensive.

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