My June 2018 Fed meeting preview
My expectation is for the Fed to raise rates, keep guidance the same but be slightly more hawkish.
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Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize
In the midterms, the Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping to generate a lot of enthusiasm by being against Trump. But I am not at all convinced this will turn out negatively for Trump and the Republicans.
How Italian political figures talk about the fiscal situation in Italy
The Italian government will do whatever it takes to remain in the Euro. When others outside of government talk about Italexit and the like, it is meaningless. That's the message Tria is sending.
What kind of game is Trump playing with Canada?
Maybe he just wants to get concessions out of the Chinese and the Mexicans and he is willing to take heat on (temporarily) damaging relationships with the Canadians. I suspect this may be what he is after.
Why shares in companies like Tesla are going to zero
I am using Tesla as an example here more than anything. I am not about to delve into Tesla's loss-making operations and make a case against the stock specifically. But I do want to highlight the 'bubble' that Tesla represents.
Non-Manufacturing ISM furthers the upside economic data surprises
This report shows the US economy in a good way. In terms of things the Fed watches, both employment and inflation look good.
US macro data support fourth rate hike in 2018
The macro data are good enough for the Fed to dismiss economic concerns for adding a hike in December. The market is only pricing in this hike at 33.2%.
How the jobs report and Fed comments support more aggressive policy and curve flattening
I have talked a decent bit about the jobs report in my last two posts here. So I want to say more about what the information in that report says to Fed members, given recent Fed guidance and speeches. I am going to lean heavily on comments…
What the latest jobs report says about the US economy
The biggest positive takeaway is that trend growth in non-farm payrolls is heading up. For me, it suggests that the economy has legs.
Jobs number puts four hikes on the table. Watch for QT increase and curve flattening
The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.