Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Political Economy

The secret Trump plan to wean Europe off of Russian gas in favor of US LNG supplies

Edward Harrison Jul 11, 2018

Trump is not merely a loudmouth, making enemies of America's allies. He is trying to muscle out Vladimir Putin and his Nord Stream 2 pipeline so that US oil and gas companies can benefit.

Bronze

Monetary and fiscal space will be very limited in the next US downturn

Edward Harrison Jul 11, 2018

Editor's note: This post was first published on Patreon on 27 June 2018. The United States governments spends money by keystroke. And though it is forced by law to sell bonds when its accounts at the Fed run low, this artificial…

Markets

The next emerging markets crisis is now: Turkey as a canary in the coalmine

Edward Harrison Jul 11, 2018

Turkish bond yields are skyrocketing as the Turkish lira plummets. The question, though, is whether Turkey is an outlier or a sign of more to come.

Economy

Update on the US jobs data

Edward Harrison Jul 10, 2018

I was out when the US jobs numbers came out on Friday. But they were good. And strangely, that's particularly because the unemployment rate increased.

Gold

Currencies to own as recession takes hold

Edward Harrison Jul 9, 2018

This post first appeared on Patreon on 9 Jul 2018 Last week, I wrote up a macro bond play that involves three parts: currencies, spread differentials and default risk. I want to hone in on one of those three today: currencies. And here's…

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Merkel called her Interior Minister’s bluff aka Germany is more stable than people think

Edward Harrison Jul 5, 2018

As long as the EU remains vastly richer than countries in North and central Africa, there will be a flow of migrants to the EU. And Italy and Greece will get the lion's share of those migrants, fuelling anti-immigrant politics. With Eastern…

Gold

Playing the yield curve

Edward Harrison Jul 5, 2018

Right now, we are still very much in the bull market phase. So the number of macro theses which make money are limited. US curve flattening and the prospect of Fed overtightening presents the best risk/reward.

Economy

GDPNow still near 4%, showing Q2 likely to be a monster quarter

Edward Harrison Jul 2, 2018

The Fed is likely to continue to talk up the US economy. And I believe markets will react. With the yield curve at 32 basis points spread between 2- and 1-year Treasuries, we still have scope for further curve flattening.

Bronze

Unilateral German action on the border is a game changer in Europe

Edward Harrison Jul 2, 2018

Why does the German immigration spat matter? It's not just about refugees. It's about German hegemony and European cohesion. This post explains.

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The politics of the German refugee crisis

Edward Harrison Jul 2, 2018

Seehofer is and has been threatening to blow up the governing coalition for some time. But will he actually do it? Will blowing up the coalition backfire? No one knows. He certainly doesn't. So he may just be bluffing.

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