This feels like a phase shift

This week I have been making the case for fading this market re-opening rally. I did not expect it to fall apart straight away. But yesterday we saw the first chinks in the armor. So let me tell you what I'm thinking now. This will be…

Some thoughts on the bullish narrative

We have started an experiment at Real Vision on our Daily Briefing where we have guest commentators more often. Our usual European commentator, Roger Hirst, is out for two weeks. And so we thought it would be a good opportunity to mix…

The Escalating New Cold War

The New Cold War I am going to have to get my hands on the new Pettis-Klein book that has come out recently. Here's how Yale University Press touts "Trade Wars are Class Wars": A provocative look at how today’s trade conflicts are caused by…

Predicting post-coronavirus outcomes

Those of you who know my writing from days gone day, when Credit Writedowns was a blog, know that I gave up advocating for policy responses a long time ago. Not to be a defeatist, but the lesson I learned from the Great Financial Crisis was…

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