Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

Yield curve inversion in the US when the Fed hikes

Edward Harrison Jan 14, 2015

This is going to be a brief post on another of my potential ten surprises for 2015. The thesis here is that, with two year rates at 0.52%, all we need to invert the yield curve is a 50 basis point hike. While there is considerable…

Political Economy

Yanis Varoufakis on fiscal waterboarding and Ponzi austerity

Edward Harrison Jan 13, 2015

Yanis Varoufakis had a long interview on RT’s Boom Bust yesterday going into detail behind his political candidacy and what he expects SYRIZA to do regarding the unsustainable debt burden that the Greek government now has. Overall, despite…

Markets

The convergence of safe asset yields toward zero favours Anglo-Saxon bonds

Edward Harrison Jan 13, 2015

As low nominal GDP growth takes hold, we should expect short-term interest rates to remain low and for the yield curve to flatten. There are three main reasons this is so. First, low nominal growth rates imply low inflation. Second, to the…

News

US jobs, high yield covenant-lite issues and the Greek restructuring negotiation

Edward Harrison Jan 9, 2015

Two topics are dominating the news of late: the decline in energy prices and the upheaval in Greek sovereign debt due to the upcoming general election. On the first issue, I have been generally positive about the economic impact because…

Markets

The crashing oil price is now a market crisis problem

Edward Harrison Jan 6, 2015

While I try not to be too alarmist here, it is clear now that the drop in oil prices has been both precipitous enough and long-enduring enough that we should start talking about this as a crisis in the making. We have an interconnectedness…

Political Economy

The Grexit talk should be frightening

Edward Harrison Jan 4, 2015

About four weeks ago, I wrote a post on Greek eurozone exit scenarios. While I believe that Greece will eventually exit the euro zone, I think it is premature to expect this to occur now as there are many avenues for compromise. The…

Markets

Natural gas and the strong dollar as headwinds into 2015

Edward Harrison Dec 24, 2014

Yesterday, I planned to write this piece as a compilation of narratives for individual countries in the global economy: India, the US, the UK, Spain, etc. However, some of these narratives are more useful than others. So I am going to lead…

Markets

Saudi Arabia’s price war and the oil and Russian ruble crisis

Edward Harrison Dec 23, 2014

The Russian rouble was last trading at a rate a tad better than 55 roubles to the US dollar and WTI was over $56 a barrel the last I checked. This could be the end of a mini-crisis or a lull in events. I tend to believe it is a lull and…

Economy

Will India be the big surprise for 2015?

Edward Harrison Dec 19, 2014

Let me keep this Friday piece short as I am going to go a little out of my wheelhouse and talk about India. I have been hearing a lot of positive noises about India from various sources including Eswar Presad, Willem Buiter and Christopher…

Markets

The Swiss National Bank turns to negative rates

Edward Harrison Dec 18, 2014

Starting 22 Jan 2015, the Swiss National Bank will charge banks 0.25% to deposit overnight funds. This move will push the 3-month Swiss franc Libor rate, currently in a Fed-like range from 0% to 0.25%, into negative territory. And it is…

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