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Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

Economic and market themes: 2014-12-17 Flight to safe assets presents opportunities

Edward Harrison Dec 17, 2014

I am going to concentrate on the news flow today and what it tells us about where this financial crisis is headed. Given the last mini-crisis we had in emerging markets was overcome relatively quickly, the present crisis doesn’t have to…

Political Economy

Cognitive bias when thinking about the Ruble crisis

Edward Harrison Dec 17, 2014

I have been appalled at the cognitive bias that masquerades as analysis when discussing the recent collapse of the Russian Ruble. The purpose of analysis is to better understand what the real constraints in a given situation are and to…

Markets

Tail risk zero bound dynamics are driven by credit risk, not interest rates

Edward Harrison Dec 16, 2014

This is my third post on tail risk now. I think the continued and broadening market volatility we have seen across asset classes in the last few months is a sign of increased tail risk and i wanted to put some parameters around how to think…

Markets

Candidates for tail risk in 2015

Edward Harrison Dec 15, 2014

Having just given you a mental model for thinking about tail risk, the natural next analysis is where the tail risk might be. Here are a few candidates.

Markets

A mental model for thinking about tail risk

Edward Harrison Dec 12, 2014

Earlier today, yields for 10-year bonds in Greece shot up 200 basis points as investors contemplate the risk associated with a potential government transition. European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker has waded into the domestic…

Political Economy

Running through Greek eurozone exit scenarios again

Edward Harrison Dec 11, 2014

Crisis has returned to the eurozone with talk about a Greek sovereign debt restructuring rife. There is even talk of Greece being forced out the eurozone. With Greek stocks plummeting and sovereign yields rising, we should take this talk…

Markets

Comments on jobs in the U.S., buy-to-let in the U.K., and rules-based monetary policy

Edward Harrison Dec 10, 2014

No one story sticks out for me today. So I thought I would make a few comments on the stories making the rounds today in the Internet. Let’s start in the U.S.

Political Economy

Policy options in Europe look frightfully limited

Edward Harrison Dec 9, 2014

Despite, the high cost of gasoline/petrol in Europe due to tax, the fact that Europe is a large net importer of oil means the decline in oil price will be more of a boost for that continent than it is to North America where concerns about…

Markets

The dangers of a strong dollar and divergent monetary policy

Edward Harrison Dec 8, 2014

This fall, oil prices have tumbled so quickly that the effect on inflation, monetary policy and the economy is likely to be dramatic. As yet, however, we don’t know what those effects are likely to be, in part because the economics…

Economy

The bullish US jobs report

Edward Harrison Dec 5, 2014

This morning, the US Labor Department reported a very bullish 321,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in November, well above expectations. Importantly, average hourly earnings showed the biggest gain since June 2013. And hours worked…

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