Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

Greek debt swap, dollar weakness and Denmark’s intervention struggles

Edward Harrison Feb 4, 2015

Three stories dominating the headlines today are the Greek sovereign debt crisis, the euro area’s economic fortunes and crude oil. I want to tell these three stories through the lens of the debt swap proposed by Yanis Varoufakis, through…

Markets

Revisiting Greek negotiating positions and more comments on capex and interest rates

Edward Harrison Feb 3, 2015

This post will be a brief revisiting of three recent topics - Greece, oil capex, and Anglo-Saxon bond yields - due to recent news. The recent news reinforces my position regarding the potential for a deal in Greece. On capex reduction, the…

Markets

Thoughts on the economic effects of the reduction in capex from the energy sector

Edward Harrison Feb 2, 2015

The rout in the energy sector is complete now. Cuts in capital expenditure are everywhere you look, not just in shale oil. With oil stocks at a record high level, it is unlikely that a rebound in prices will happen in the near term. And…

Monetary System

Why quantitative easing and negative interest rates will fail

Edward Harrison Jan 30, 2015

This is going to be a short thought piece. But the takeaway should be that the convergence to zero will continue unabated as the threat of inflation is muted given the combination of excess capacity, high private debt and unfavourable…

Markets

The convergence to zero continues, favouring Anglo-Saxon government bonds

Edward Harrison Jan 29, 2015

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is now signalling rate cuts are possible, coming out of its last policy meeting. Its 10-yr bonds have the highest yield of all developed economy major Central Banks. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve’s last…

Political Economy

Negotiating strategies and political constraints regarding Greece

Edward Harrison Jan 26, 2015

I am going to leave my market-based analysis and enter the murky waters of the political economy. I don’t like the uncertainty of the political economy, given how it is based on the quixotic and unpredictable actions of individuals. But the…

Markets

Negative yields, quantitative easing, currency wars, and reflexivity

Edward Harrison Jan 23, 2015

Compared to the 1930s, this deflationary crisis has played out much slower and more benignly. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a crisis. It is one, as evidenced by the beggar-thy-neighbour tactics like negative rates and quantitative easing that…

Markets

The Danish krone problem

Edward Harrison Jan 20, 2015

In the wake of the turmoil surrounding the Swiss Franc, the Danish krone has become the subject of speculative attack. Unlike the Swiss, the Danes have a peg to the euro that is permanent and long-lasting. They also have a backstop via a…

Markets

Reasons the Fed won’t raise rates

Edward Harrison Jan 15, 2015

I had been intending to write this post as a counterpoint to what I wrote yesterday about curve inversion. The Chief bullet point was going to be about the Fed’s not wanting to create curve inversion. But with the Swiss National Bank move,…

Markets

Initial thoughts on the Swiss National Bank peg removal

Edward Harrison Jan 15, 2015

The Swiss National Bank’s announcement that it had decided to scrap its floor for the Swiss Franc against the euro is the biggest thing to hit the foreign exchange market since the UK and Sweden were booted out of ERM. This is a very big…

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