Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Political Economy

More on how to look at the Greek bailout deal

Edward Harrison Feb 23, 2015

Yesterday, I ended my analysis writing that, “there is enough flexibility in this deal that both sides can declare victory”, and that “from a market perspective, I expect risk-on mood to re-assert itself now. And with the tailwind of lower…

Political Economy

How to look at the Greece bailout deal

Edward Harrison Feb 21, 2015

Yesterday, Greece received an agreement in principal to extend its existing bailout program for another four months from the institutions administering that program. I believe this deal is a good basis for further work down the line. But…

Political Economy

Grexit looms large: some quick thoughts on state of affairs

Edward Harrison Feb 20, 2015

Ever the optimist, I ended yesterday’s post writing that a deal remains the base case outcome. But unfortunately, this does not mean a deal gets done. And so we should look again at what could happen if no deal gets done. My sense is that…

Political Economy

The Greek extension disaster

Edward Harrison Feb 19, 2015

Actually I had intended to write a different post but just now Germany has rejected a letter from Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis that looked to extend the Greek bailout program. The German rejection changes the complexion of…

Political Economy

A decision-tree framework for thinking about the Greek – Troika negotiations

Edward Harrison Feb 18, 2015

This is a short post to update you on Greece. I continue to believe a deal can get done. Recent events demonstrate this is so. Nevertheless, the potential for policy error remains high. Brief thoughts below using a decision tree model…

Monetary System

A mental model for understanding policy errors and consistency anchors using the Fed and Greece

Edward Harrison Feb 12, 2015

One of the great things about markets and economics is that there is a lot of uncertainty built into them because, unlike traditional macroeconomic modelling assumptions, real people are unpredictable and irrational. This makes life…

News

More analysis on the situation in Greece, Denmark and North America

Edward Harrison Feb 11, 2015

Just following up on yesterday’s post, I want to go into further detail regarding two situations in Europe and pivot to a Canadian-centric look at North America. ALl of these threads won’t tie together but I will see what I can do to bring…

News

Potential deal in Greece, Speculation on Danish peg and US interest rates

Edward Harrison Feb 10, 2015

No story is really dominating headlines today. So I thought it would be a good time to look around at a number of different topics I have written on in the past. Of course, Greece is still the biggest issue but it is optimism today instead…

Economy

US economic data pointing up, bolstering Fed tightening bias

Edward Harrison Feb 9, 2015

On Friday, the US jobs data showed that the US real economy is weathering the oil price decline very well as oil sector jobs account for little in the overall economy. Despite the capital expenditure effect on future growth, the US economy…

Political Economy

ECB ends Greek collateral waiver, ELA still available, Greek options limited

Edward Harrison Feb 5, 2015

Last night the European Central Bank announced that it would no longer accept Greek government or Greek government-guaranteed collateral for loans. This step had been telegraphed for a month but the timing demonstrates how political an…

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