2017

Underconsumption is the term we’re now using to describe the thesis that we are living in a world of excess supply. The novelty here - as I pointed out yesterday - is not that the world is oversupplied - and therefore lacking in developed…

In February, the rate of growth of Italy’s manufacturing sector showed the fastest increase in output and new orders since December 2015. Employment growth was the highest since late 2000.

I have three charts for you which demonstrate that the US Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy.

This chart speaks volumes about the Trump rally.

The GDP report today showed middling growth of an annualized 1.9% in the US in the last quarter of 2016. That’s not gangbusters, but it’s not bad either. The thing to look at is consumption, because that shows the consumer chugging along.…

US GDP numbers released today show the economy grew at a 1.9% annualized pace in the last quarter. That follows a 3.5% pace in the quarter before. Not bad. But the question now is how long this will keep up. Declining auto sales might offer…

Yesterday’s post on the failure of Japan’s monetary policy experiment drew some favourable commentary from a prominent macroeconomist that I want to run by you. The gist of his insight is that we have long been living in an age of an excess…

Tonight US President Donald Trump is due to give his first state of the union address. From a foreign policy perspective, the big item on the table is Russia. But from an economic perspective, the country we meed to be thinking about is…

While most analysts have been focused on credit growth which has re-emerged after the sovereign debt crisis, cross border inter-bank lending has decreased, fragmenting the euro zone along national lines. In a crisis scenario, one should…

The failure of Japan’s grand monetary policy experiment to meet expectations is a warning sign we all should heed. But right now fears of so-called secular stagnation have receded as the global economy has roared back to life. We should not…