Macro Q&A – 20 Questions and 20 Answers
By Claus Vistesen.
I know this is a cheap shot, but still. Team Macro Man picks up an all time favorite over at MM and asks 20 questions (check this out for other answers) to which I have offered 20 answers.,
- Will the 10yr Treasury yield breach 2% this year?
- When will the Japanese intervene?
- Will the US finally get tough with China in the run up to the mid-terms?
- When will the UK have a 4% CPI print?
- What will US GDP be for 2H 2010?
- Will SNB LLC resume macro punting (aka EURCHF interventions) this year?
- Does the SPX trade 1040 or 1140 first?
- Will Simon Hughes cause the ConDem coalition to collapse?
- Who will win the Labour leadership contest?
- Are we turning Japanese?
- Who will be the first to hike? Fed, BoE or ECB?
- Does Druckenmiller’s departure herald the end of Macro trading?
- When will the divergence between Eurozone and US growth surprises begin to close, and how? Eurozone weakness or US strength?
- Will the Republicans capture the House?
- Will Voldemort ever stop taking the piss?
- Which will be the next Macro fund to call it quits?
- Is the Bank of England losing control of inflation?
- Is there a bond bubble?
- When will the Fed move the Interest On Reserves (IOR) Rate negative?
- What will happen to the GSEs?
And my answers …
- Yes (Q4)
- If the USD/JPY hits 80 or if it stays at 85 til Q4
- No
- They won’t
- (qoq) Q3 0.3%, Q4 0.2%
- No
- 1040
- No Idea
- Ibid
- Europe is, the US is touch and go; I think they might just make it!
- Fed in Q4 2011
- Who?
- In H02 2010 (Eurozone weakness)
- Yes
- No
- Not yours I hope!
- No
- Yes, but it has some time still to run
- H01 2011
- Nothing in the next 18 months.
Don’t bet all your portfolio on this though. It is just fun and sports!
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