2011

Alright, I have a mea culpa here. Check out this quote from June 2008

Our post of August 22nd, S&P500 Faces a Fork in the Road, noted the S&P500 faced a fork in the road. One path, the 2010 bullish trajectory bolstered by Jackson Hole; the other, the bearish 2008 trajectory, the result of, say, a…

If real returns remain low, it will skew capital investment. When recession hits, debtors backing those losing investments will be caught out and forced to delever aggressively as resource misallocation becomes evident.

I would highlight three key points: new orders and production are contracting while inventories are growing. So, overall, I would consider this a weak report that also exhibited soft forward-looking sub-components.

Jack the Ripper: First picture of George Feigenbaum | Mail Online (tags: history rape crime britain) 25 Big Corp CEOs Made More Than Their Companies Paid in…

My take: economic growth is moderating in Asia and that has caused central banks to become more dovish. Markets no longer expect the tightening cycle there to continue at the same pace. The 50 basis point cut in Brazil could be seen as a…

While most EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see stances, very few have cut rates during this cycle. Besides Brazil, only Turkey has this distinction and we’ve seen markets punish the lira in recent weeks. While the…

When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future - prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need…

After posting the W bottoms on the S&P500 and the Brazil ETF here is our favorite, the Korea ETF (EWY). We learned during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis never to short Korea and never underestimate the resolve of the Korean people.

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago.