2011

I see this deal as a quid pro quo for the banks getting recaps in exchange for writedowns. Because it is a negotiated agreement of a sort of payment in kind, it isn't really clear if the banks are being made whole (as compared to a…

FX markets are consolidating recent gains with most majors and EM weaker ahead of the open. After the EU Summit what is next for FX markets; today markets likely to focus on US income/spending report. Swiss KOF leading index fell to 0.8…

The French paper L’Express live-blogged the event and I just wanted to fill you in on the critical passage right at the outset of the interview that everyone has been talking about regarding the Greek default, the CDS and the euro. My…

Markets rallied strongly in response to the European developments. Yet it is an exaggeration to think that risk appetites returned as the whole month of October has seen equities, emerging markets, commodities and foreign currencies trend…

What happens when you get a default that equates to a 50% loss for most investors without triggering default insurance? Massively negative unintended consequences.

The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In…

Here's Roger Bootle talking to Bloomberg's Maryam Nemazee about the deal hammered out yesterday to 'save Greece.' He is quite sceptical. First, the 120% debt to GDP figure that the deal is predicated on reaching is still high and assumes a…

Much of macroeconomic policymaking is trial and error. This column discusses calamitous error on the part of Iceland’s policymakers, in the hope that others can at least try something else.

Are these haircuts on Greek debt really such a good idea? Or are they really just a stopgap that will make things all the worse in the long-run? Sure, Mr. Market seems to think they’re fantastic. But then, Mr. Market has always been…

The BoJ announced today that it will expand its asset purchase programme by JPY5trn (USD66bn), with all the purchases being directed at JGB's. Add that to the GBP75bn (USD120bn) by the BoE, CHF50bn (USD57bn) by the SNB and the EUR341bn…