2011

This morning's note from UBS' Andy Lees addresses something about which I am sceptical regarding the escalating Libyan conflict: global spare oil capacity. I am in the same camp with Jeremy Grantham. Call it peak resources, peak oil,…

The correct way to look at the causes of trade imbalances, in my opinion, is to look at policies that force up or down the savings rate, or the consumption rate (which is more or less the same thing since total savings is simply total…

The resilience of the euro in the face of seemingly incontrovertible evidence that Portugal will need to get assistance and that very same program and approach has not been enough to stabilize the Greek and Irish situation is amazing.…

Is the global saving glut to blame for global imbalances? This column argues that the role played by loose monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve should not be overlooked. The prolonged decline in long-term interest rates in the…

Apparently, George Osborne, the current Chancellor, has such a bedroom voice that he puts the Lord Chancellor to sleep. Sweet dreams.

From David Rosenberg's Breakfast with Dave missive: Dallas Fed President Fisher, who is an FOMC voter this year, told Bloomberg News yesterday that there is not going to be any more stimulus after June. This is going to leave Mr.…

Well, yes. Case-Shiller data confirmed this for me in January. We've been saying that's where things were headed since the expiration of the home buyer's tax credit last year. And even last winter we saw a seasonal dip in prices that got us…

If you look at U.S. equity valuations based on value metrics like the Shiller P/E, stocks are rather expensive right now. Because many factors within an individual business cycle are mean-reverting, to the degree one wants to conduct…

Today it was revealed that last week the Federal Reserve rejected Bank of America's plan to increase its dividend from its token penny a share in the second half of 2011. Clearly, the Fed is sending a message that it does not believe the…

This video by The Onion is funny – both in a good way and in a bad way! All hail CIA Agent Mark Zuckerberg, code name 'The Overlord'.