2011

The U.S. narrowly avoided a federal government shutdown this past weekend. While President Obama has hailed the compromise which allowed the government to continue to function, it is already clear that more shutdown battles are coming very…

Below is a video of Richard Koo from this past weekend's INET conference in Bretton Woods giving us his latest thoughts on policy responses to a balance sheet recession. He believes that Europe, the U.S. and China have much to learn from…

In Peru, populist candidate Ollanta Humala won the most votes in the weekend presidential vote in Peru, winning 29.3% so far with 75% of the ballots counted. By falling far short of the 50% + 1 needed to win, a second round vote will be…

You have seen a few of these videos on ghost malls and ghost cities in China. This one from an Australian broadcast is quite good. It reinforces what I have been saying about the magnitude of non-performing loans and how this constrains…

On Saturday I wrote about the Scylla and Charybdis of anchoring inflation expectations, geared toward developed economies in North America and Europe. You tighten too aggressively and you get unwanted disinflation or deflation. You remain…

The vote reflected widespread belief that government negotiators had not been vigorous in pleading Iceland’s legal case. The situation is reminiscent of World War I’s Inter-Ally war debt tangle. Lloyd George described the negotiations…

This topic needs a lot more attention. And I think today's so-called Bretton Woods II fiat system is unstable. Excess money creation and trade imbalances are secular problems that fiat currency has allowed to become destabilizing. If…

I would argue that inflation expectations are rising as we speak. They are still anchored but they will not be if they continue to rise any more. And if inflation expectations become unanchored, it will mean that policy tightening will have…

Bernanke (and Dudley) have been testifying that inflation is not an issue. But what signs and maps are they reading? Bernanke specifically invokes inflation expectations as being most important, and he contends they are low. They both note…

Some investors are tiring of our cautioning of a “possible correction,” “waiting until you see the whites of their eyes,” and so forth. Some wish the market would stop dithering and just head north into mania territory. Or wish Casey…