On Ireland, Double Dips and Other Links

I will be on BNN at 12:15 today. Topics are unknown but Ireland’s downgrade and double dip in the US are two likely subjects.  My general take is that this is playing out as scripted here and here.

Back in 2009, when I was talking about the potential for a double dip, my baseline was for a multiyear recovery, but my baseline for the U.S. moved to double dip late last year because I anticipated a muted policy response. See here. Some of you are talking about the fake recovery as if it never happened. In that vein, David Rosenberg is now serving up charts that have recession lines with no break in the Great Recession to present. So he’s telling us his baseline is no recovery. (video below)

My take: statistically speaking, the economy has grown for four quarters. A year of statistical growth sounds like a statistical recovery. But read Technical recovery won’t feel like a recovery to most for why people are saying we are not in recovery. I reckon people said the same thing in 1981 too.

Here are the links with a highlight on Ireland.

On Ireland

The Usual Fare

  • Fiscal Austerity and America’s Future – NYTimes.com
  • Despite Reform, Banks Have Room for Risky Deals – NYTimes.com
  • Norske økonomer spør seg om USA er på vei inn i ny resesjon | Makro og politkk | E24
  • ‘Quiet revolution’ pushes lease lengths to record low – Telegraph
  • College Dropout Factories by Ben Miller and Phuong Ly | Washington Monthly
  • How To Raise A Superstar | Wired Science | Wired.com
  • The Government’s New Right to Track Your Every Move With GPS – TIME
  • FT Alphaville » James Montier on the value of dividends
  • TheMoneyIllusion » The extraordinary success of liberaltarianism
  • A Consensus to Question, by Arnold Kling
  • German Business Confidence Reaches 3-Year High
  • July new home sales sag and durables orders soft | Reuters
  • FT Alphaville » Mishkin’s very own Icelandic blow-up
  • BBC News – Today – IFS: Budget ‘very clearly regressive’
  • Economist’s View: Identifying Cyclical vs. Structural Unemployment
  • The two gangs of economists warring over the causes of high unemployment. – By James Ledbetter – Slate Magazine
  • FT.com / FT’s rolling global market overview – Worries about US recovery deepen
    Read more: https://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed#ixzz0xiWj69sD

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