Macro Q&A – 20 Questions and 20 Answers

By Claus Vistesen.

I know this is a cheap shot, but still. Team Macro Man picks up an all time favorite over at MM and asks 20 questions (check this out for other answers) to which I have offered 20 answers.,

  1. Will the 10yr Treasury yield breach 2% this year?
  2. When will the Japanese intervene?
  3. Will the US finally get tough with China in the run up to the mid-terms?
  4. When will the UK have a 4% CPI print?
  5. What will US GDP be for 2H 2010?
  6. Will SNB LLC resume macro punting (aka EURCHF interventions) this year?
  7. Does the SPX trade 1040 or 1140 first?
  8. Will Simon Hughes cause the ConDem coalition to collapse?
  9. Who will win the Labour leadership contest?
  10. Are we turning Japanese?
  11. Who will be the first to hike? Fed, BoE or ECB?
  12. Does Druckenmiller’s departure herald the end of Macro trading?
  13. When will the divergence between Eurozone and US growth surprises begin to close, and how? Eurozone weakness or US strength?
  14. Will the Republicans capture the House?
  15. Will Voldemort ever stop taking the piss?
  16. Which will be the next Macro fund to call it quits?
  17. Is the Bank of England losing control of inflation?
  18. Is there a bond bubble?
  19. When will the Fed move the Interest On Reserves (IOR) Rate negative?
  20. What will happen to the GSEs?

And my answers …

  1. Yes (Q4)
  2. If the USD/JPY hits 80 or if it stays at 85 til Q4
  3. No
  4. They won’t
  5. (qoq) Q3 0.3%, Q4 0.2%
  6. No
  7. 1040
  8. No Idea
  9. Ibid
  10. Europe is, the US is touch and go; I think they might just make it!
  11. Fed in Q4 2011
  12. Who?
  13. In H02 2010 (Eurozone weakness)
  14. Yes
  15. No
  16. Not yours I hope!
  17. No
  18. Yes, but it has some time still to run
  19. H01 2011
  20. Nothing in the next 18 months.

Don’t bet all your portfolio on this though. It is just fun and sports!

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