2009

Update 31 Mar 2009: I am re-posting this post about unemployment figures from November 2008 because I think it relevant. The next unemployment number is coming out on Friday and I expect a large number. If you read this analysis, you can…

House prices increased in March in the U.K. according to Nationwide Building Society. Below is what Nationwide's Chief Economist Fionnuala Earley had to say about this surprise good news: “Spring brought a surprise bounce to house prices…

Tomorrow, we all await the unemployment number with anticipation.  In all likelihood, it is going to be a nasty number edging us ever closer to the 9.0% I once saw as a sort of upper range number for 2009. Meanwhile, jobless claims for…

This comes via Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman and is an even-handed review of what just happened: As widely expected FASB modified fair value accounting rules. The key seems to be for assets for which there is not a market. The…

Marshall Auerback here with a few thoughts about this economic cycle, external imbalances, fiscal stimulus, and current account deficits. This is not the Great Depression. We are going to have "muddle through" here precisely because we…

Before I provide the links I want to add some clarifying points about previous articles. Regarding the story about Larry Summers, Summers did not dismiss the employee in question. So, the post title is rather misleading. My apologies.…

I am sure you realize by now that I believe Larry Summers is soft on derivatives, soft on regulation and soft on banking executives.  He exemplifies the self-regulatory zeal of the previous boom.  Given his indifference to responsible…

This comes via Angus Robertson over at Research Recap: Fitch Ratings forecasts that Emerging Europe (EE) will suffer its steepest fall in real GDP since the collapse of the Communist planned economic system in the early 1990s, reflecting…

The OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities for the Fourth Quarter 2008 is out. And derivatives exposure is way up. U.S. commercial banks now have a massive $200 trillion in derivatives exposure, which is 14x U.S.…

Of course you know I think credit cards are going to produce a tsunami of writedowns, right? Things are looking more and more like that tsunami is right around the corner: Credit card writedowns soared to record levels in February,…