Case-Shiller: Price increases in 14 of 20 markets

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for May 2009 were released today and the data showed a marked contrast to previous months. Fully 14 of 20 markets showed an increase in home prices in that month, making it the first time since July 2006 that the overall index has risen month-to-month. On a year-over-year basis, home prices are down 17.1% in the Composite-20 markets.

Case Shiller 2009-05

Clearly, we are seeing a bottoming in US house prices, just as we have done in UK house prices.  While the stock market is down this morning and analysts remain cautious despite this news, these data can only add to what is looking like a more favorable picture for residential real estate in the US.  Just yesterday, the new homes data showed similarly positive news. Analysts were cautious then as well. If we string together a few months of similar numbers, this would in all likelihood signal a bottoming of house prices in the US.

However, it bears remembering that we are in the heavy spring/summer selling season (seasonally adjusted pries are down – see spreadsheet), so things could look very different come Winter.


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – S&P Website

  1. BankPencil says

    Seasonally adjusted they were still down. From Calculated Risk.. “There is a strong seasonal pattern to house prices, and it is important to use the SA data. Unfortunately Case-Shiller did not release the SA data earlier this morning. This has lead to numerous incorrect headlines about prices increasing from April to May. That is correct, if they mention the data is Not Seasonally Adjusted.”

    1. Edward Harrison says

      Thank for noting that. I did actually add a link to the SA numbers, making exactly that point. The same is true in the UK I suspect. Nonetheless, the year-over-year numbers show a potential ‘bottoming’ not a bottom.

      1. Adam says

        As you noted, this is peak-buying season. Add in artificially-low mortgage rates and $8,000 tax credits, and even the rosiest interpretations of this “increase” seem paltry.

        Say the avg house is $200k. Add in an $8,000 incentive (compared to last year, when there was none), and the YoY numbers look even worse.

  2. Ranger Turtle says

    The SA (seasonally adjusted) data was released later, and showed just the opposite (12 of 20 DECREASED)!
    See Calculated Risk blog

  3. Anonymous says

    Irwin Home Equity/Irwin Financial in California and Indiana are a horrible company to deal with. They have many former employees out there who will tell the whole truth about what shoddy business practices they employed to get loans through. They forged loan applications, they inflated applicants incomes and erased bad debt off of credit applications temporarily to get applications to go through. They then stood in line waiting for the homes to foreclose and opened another company called Franklin Financial in New York who purchases the homes back and re-sells them. They made money on both ends. The former employees have told many tales about the thousands of lawsuits against Irwin Home Equity/Irwin Financial. They paid off attorneys to get cases, almost all cases dismissed even when the law was clearly black and white in favor of the opposing party who was harmed by Irwin Home Equity. There is a couple in Pennsylvania who lost their home because of a $22 thousand dollar mistake on Irwin Home Equity’s part, the case was dismissed. They in their 50’s are now homeless. There are numerous stories of couples in Indiana who lost their home to Irwin’s mistakes and had absolutely no recourse in court because of Irwin’s far reaching lobbying efforts and campaign donations. There is a couple in Michigan who lost their home because of a mistake Irwin made and refused to fix. We are told this case was also dismissed because of their far reaching lobbying efforts and campaign donations. All of these people, over 200 of them are now left homeless because of Irwin Home Equity/Irwin Financial/ Irwin Union Bank’s despicable business practices and predatory lending, unfair business practices, gutter dealings. Do not do business with Irwin Home Equity/Irwin Financial/ Irwin Union Bank you will loose your home to foreclosure and end up homeless just as the people mentioned in this article have ended up. If the prospect of living in your car and showering at truck stops does not sound like a breath of fresh air to you look to have your mortgage funded elsewhere!

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