Case-Shiller: Price increases in 14 of 20 markets
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for May 2009 were released today and the data showed a marked contrast to previous months. Fully 14 of 20 markets showed an increase in home prices in that month, making it the first time since July 2006 that the overall index has risen month-to-month. On a year-over-year basis, home prices are down 17.1% in the Composite-20 markets.
Clearly, we are seeing a bottoming in US house prices, just as we have done in UK house prices. While the stock market is down this morning and analysts remain cautious despite this news, these data can only add to what is looking like a more favorable picture for residential real estate in the US. Just yesterday, the new homes data showed similarly positive news. Analysts were cautious then as well. If we string together a few months of similar numbers, this would in all likelihood signal a bottoming of house prices in the US.
However, it bears remembering that we are in the heavy spring/summer selling season (seasonally adjusted pries are down – see spreadsheet), so things could look very different come Winter.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – S&P Website
Seasonally adjusted they were still down. From Calculated Risk.. “There is a strong seasonal pattern to house prices, and it is important to use the SA data. Unfortunately Case-Shiller did not release the SA data earlier this morning. This has lead to numerous incorrect headlines about prices increasing from April to May. That is correct, if they mention the data is Not Seasonally Adjusted.”
Thank for noting that. I did actually add a link to the SA numbers, making exactly that point. The same is true in the UK I suspect. Nonetheless, the year-over-year numbers show a potential ‘bottoming’ not a bottom.
As you noted, this is peak-buying season. Add in artificially-low mortgage rates and $8,000 tax credits, and even the rosiest interpretations of this “increase” seem paltry.
Say the avg house is $200k. Add in an $8,000 incentive (compared to last year, when there was none), and the YoY numbers look even worse.
The SA (seasonally adjusted) data was released later, and showed just the opposite (12 of 20 DECREASED)!
See Calculated Risk blog
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