January 2009

Raghuram Rajan is a bloody good economist, that's who he is. Rajan, who succeeded Kenneth Rogoff at the International Monetary Fund as Chief Economist, is also a prescient voice of reason on any number of different subjects. Recently,…

The numbers for December are in and they are grim. 2008 was a year to forget in the auto industry. Sales plummeted around the globe as recession took hold. In the United States, every major car company saw sales fall at least 30% compared…

As the New Year unfolds, it is time for predictions. I have done my part, giving a full account of where I see things headed in 2009 in my post "Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy" and where I want to see them headed in 2009 in…

Given the fact that this site is called Credit Writedowns, you would expect me to take a fairly skeptical view about the growing consensus regarding a rapid recovery in 2009. I do, in large part because I understand that banks face many…

The video below is an addendum to my post on Andrew Barry's Barron's cover story piece regarding Treasury Bonds and the growing consensus to avoid them. While I agree with the consensus about Treasury bonds being a bubble, I expect the…

A number of the following posts are fairly controversial and I present them not so much because I agree, but rather because the ideas presented or the news is worthy of your attention. I highly recommend the Willem Buiter piece at the end.…

The consensus is coming down on the bearish side for U.S. government bonds in 2009. There is ample reason to believe that Treasuries will be an asset class to avoid this year. Yet, as I argue in a post a few days ago, "rates can go to…

As an article in my links yesterday suggested, for many in the west, Russia's behavior of late has lurched toward the unpredictable, volatile and aggressive. After Russia's moves against Georgia in South Ossetia, wariness in the west has…

British interest rates may sink to lowest since 1694 - Telegraph BBC NEWS | Romanian fear amid economic gloom Russia: Energy enigma, gas theories abound - BBC News Bloomberg.com: Oil Caps Biggest Weekly Gain Since 1986 on Geopolitical…