wages

Early on in President Trump’s new administration, too much of his energy is being placed on divisive ‘cultural’ issues and not enough attention is being paid to economic policies. To the degree Trump has turned to the economy, much of his…

For managers of money, the post-crisis low growth world has had major implications for asset allocation strategies. Assumptions about returns are greatly affected by the both monetary easing used to counteract the slowing and the yield…

The last few days have made clear that monetary policy is having less and less impact as time goes along.In particular, the latest salvos from the Bank of Japan smack of desperation, as if BOJ Governor Kuroda has decided to throw everything…

In the United States, the Republican Party is baffled by how their electorate has favoured Donald Trump for nomination for President in 2016. Equally, the Democrats are scurrying to quell the massive inflow of votes to Bernie Sanders, whose…

The situation in Greece is not about Greece at all. It is about enforcing an economic framework onto all Eurozone countries. And because the policy goal is primarily about enforcing this economic framework everywhere in the eurozone, there…

Yesterday, the big news for US data was poor post-winter retail sales. I believe US consumption growth still supports a 2 or even 3%ish level of GDP growth. It is actually elsewhere where the US economy has shifted down: inventories,…

The US economy’s upswing over the last six years has been predicated on credit like the cycle before it because wage growth has been lacklustre. I want to describe where credit activity has created a lift in consumer spending and in capital…

I have mentioned 1994 as a benign comparison for the US economy of 2015 as opposed to the 1937 comparison Ray Dalio made recently. Having looked at reasonable worst case scenarios with 1997 Japan as a model, I want to look at upside…

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its next open market committee meeting and statement, I want to take a look at what US data are saying about the US economy. The main focus here is going to be the underlying pace of the US economy and…

On Friday, the US jobs data showed that the US real economy is weathering the oil price decline very well as oil sector jobs account for little in the overall economy. Despite the capital expenditure effect on future growth, the US economy…