The biggest positive takeaway is that trend growth in non-farm payrolls is heading up. For me, it suggests that the economy has legs.
As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…
Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.
There is no indication that average hourly earnings are moving sustainably higher. And therefore, there is no indication that average hourly earnings have any inflationary consequences.
Increasing demand is key to growth in advanced economies. And that means higher wages are necessary. But the redistribution of national income toward capital over the past generation has undermined the capacity of ordinary households to…
Productivity is an important yardstick for measuring the value of goods and services workers. A recent study by McKinsey demonstrates that wages and demand are key to raising it.
The short vol trade may now be over. Bond yields will again reach levels that causes angst for equity markets. And equities will tumble. Rinse and repeat.
We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.