United States

So imagine you are a moderate FOMC member. This is the economic situation you face and the trade-offs in terms of policy tools.

It is worth noting that currently both markets are pushing deviation extremes only seen four times previously. The difference has much to do with the "secular market" within which these deviations occurred. The current deviation from the…

Here is an observation. The last couple of years show some interesting similarities to the period ending in early 2005. The reason for such a comparison is that then, just as now the Fed began to gradually exit its highly accommodative…

WTI crude oil has undergone a substantial correction in the last few days. What's going on?

Deficits present governments with the sole challenge of making good on future promises without inflation. For nations sovereign in currency, the constraint is inflation, not solvency.

Long-term interest rates may have bottomed several months ago, but rate will remain low for several more months. For good reason, many observers and investors are concerned that the dysfunctional political system in the US will renew the…

Below are the video and some excerpts from a recent interview BlackRock CEO Larry Fink did with Bloomberg Television. The interview here is mostly about the effect of the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis on the economy and…

Summary: Below are some brief thoughts on the consequences of the US government shutdown and its aftermath. In general, I believe the consequences are more likely to be political and long-term without any significant short-term implications…

A last minute deal was struck that re-opens the US federal government and removes the immediate threat of default, but rather than turn the attention from the US, the focus has shifted from fiscal policy to monetary policy. In particular,…

The recent downturns in consumer confidence and spending are likely being exacerbated by the controversy in Washington; but it is clear that the consumer was already feeling the pressure of the surge in interest rates, higher energy and…