United States

Summary: I expect the debt ceiling impasse to be overcome today as a result of a Senate-brokered deal. With this manufactured crisis out of the way, we can concentrate on earnings and on the economy. While US growth is on track, I expect…

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on…

Summary: According to press accounts, the Senate could vote on a plan to end the government shutdown and avert a default on U.S. government debt as soon as tonight. Nonetheless, we are clearly in the 11th hour and must consider default a…

As the US government shutdown continues, the risk of default grows. Below are some thoughts on why this has played out as it has and what the outcome may be.

US CDS is based on treasuries (linked to a specific security - the co-called "reference obligation"), which according to the official offering document (see offering circular here), do not have a "grace period". Under such circumstances…

The US dollar is narrowly mixed against major and emerging market currencies. Comments by House Speaker Boehner that he will form a majority bloc to avoid a default by the Federal government is being understood two ways.

Right now, US jobless claims are very low by recent historical standards. I believe this represents a peak for growth in this business cycle. But there are almost certainly seasonal adjustment problems with this data series. Despite…

It isn't yet clear how long the US government shutdown will last or what impact the shutdown will have. Nor is it clear that the US will escape a debt default down the road. Therefore, at this time all that reigns is uncertainty.

QE is still on, but central banks are pondering exit pathways. Exit requires vacuuming up excess reserves, winding down massive securities holdings, and restoring normal interest rates – all without killing the recovery. This column points…

The German election and the US debt ceiling crisis are the two political events dominating the economic headlines - and for good reason; these two events could have potentially big consequences on the regional and global economy. In the…